


[Fandom stats] How long will future Sherlock hiatuses be? (crack!math)

by toastystats (destinationtoast)



Series: Fandom Stats [76]
Category: Sherlock (TV)
Genre: Crack, Cross-Posted on Tumblr, Mathematics, Meta, Nonfiction
Language: English
Status: Completed
Published: 2015-07-11
Updated: 2015-07-11
Packaged: 2019-09-19 20:26:54
Rating: General Audiences
Warnings: No Archive Warnings Apply
Chapters: 1
Words: 250
Publisher: archiveofourown.org
Story URL: https://archiveofourown.org/works/17008638
Author URL: https://archiveofourown.org/users/destinationtoast/pseuds/toastystats
Summary: Or, the problem with taking mathematical models too seriously.





	[Fandom stats] How long will future Sherlock hiatuses be? (crack!math)

**Author's Note:**

> Pure crack. :) Originally [posted on Tumblr](http://destinationtoast.tumblr.com/post/123871475694/the-length-of-bbc-sherlock-hiatuses-is-growing) in 2015.

[](https://photos.google.com/share/AF1QipNfIAP2nBhjNxva3s1oYWyv_nDghuCmNa8INN4wE96IKzjWYKtksd627_5d-6cisA/photo/AF1QipNSdhP-xgmWhBrg2GnhZ5H-H0GXxpIqRgt1gxUO?key=UzBPVlZCQ3p1S1VnWHVkM2tDR3lQNGs2VmRBM3BR)

The length of BBC Sherlock hiatuses is growing: 

  * 1.5 years between S1 and S2
  * 2 years between S2 and S3  

  * An unknown amount of time between S3 and S4 (not counting the special), but given that S4 isn’t filming till next year, I’m guessing the beginning of 2017 (3 years from S2)



What does this mean for S5 and beyond?  Disregarding the Sherlock Special as an outlier, I ~~mis~~ used statistics to predict the lengths of waits for future seasons. 

A linear model can’t completely fit the pattern so far, but predicts that the wait for S5 will be 3.7 years (S5 will air in late 2020).  The quadratic and exponential curves can fit the data so far exactly, and they predict the wait for S5 will be between 4 and 5 years, meaning a 2021 air date.

After that, the models rapidly diverge.  If we jump ahead a few seasons to S8 (taking the show creators at their word that they have no plans to stop producing Sherlock episodes whenever they can find the time), we get the following predictions for the greatest hiatus yet:

  * Linear model predicts a 6 year wait (airdate in 2036)
  * Quadratic model predicts an 11 year wait (airdate in 2047)
  * Exponential model predicts a 23 year wait (airdate in 2066)



If you thought the Sherlock fandom was insane during our 2 year wait for S3, just you wait!

_(Note: I promise this is cracktastic math, not actual predictions.)_

**[[More (realer) fandom stats](http://destinationtoast.tumblr.com/stats)]**

**Author's Note:**

> Comments welcome, but I’m in the middle of a massive fandom stats backup due to Tumblr purge, so I may be slow to respond.


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